factor investing - QuantPedia

Transaction Costs Optimization for Currency Factor Strategies

June 18, 2020

A lot of backtests of systematic trading strategies omit transaction costs (in the form of spreads and fees). Simulation is then simpler, but resultant model portfolio and its performance can be misleading. In the case of currency factor investing, backtest without the costs simulation can pick currencies with wider spreads and higher volatilities. And in real trading, with real-world transaction costs, a strategy can, therefore, perform significantly worse than expected. A research paper written by Melvin, Pan, and Wikstrom offers an elegant optimization methodology to incorporate transaction costs into the backtesting process which allows strategies to retain their alpha …

Authors: Michael Melvin, Wenqiang Pan, Petra Wikstrom

Title: Retaining Alpha: The Effect of Trade Size and Rebalancing Frequency on FX Strategy Returns

Trend Breaks in Trend-Following Strategies

June 9, 2020

Trend-following strategies are very effective when markets are cleanly trending, but they suffer when trends end too soon. How markets behaved during the last few years, were they prone to last-longing trends? Are we able to immunize trend-following to endure the negative impact of trend breaks better? A research paper written by Garg, Goulding, Harvey, and Mazzoleni finds a negative relationship between the number of turning points (a month in which slow 12-month and faster 2-month momentum signals differ in their indications to buy or sell) and risk-adjusted performance of a 12-month trend-following strategy. The average number of turning points experienced across assets has increased in recent years. But we can implement a “dynamic” trend-following strategy that adjusts the weight it assigns to slow and fast time-series momentum signals after observing market breaks to recover much of the losses experienced by static-window trend following…

Authors: Garg, Goulding, Harvey, Mazzoleni

Title: Breaking Bad Trends

Long-Short vs Long-Only Implementation of Equity Factors

May 26, 2020

How should be equity factor strategies implemented? In a long-only smart beta) way? As a long-short strategy, as most of the hedge funds usually do? Or in a partially-hedged fashion by going long equity factor and shorting market to offset some of the market risks? There is no one universal answer as it depends on the investment mandate and constraints of each fund manager contemplating to implement factor investing strategies. But recent academic paper written by Benaych-Georges, Bouchaud and Ciliberti suggests that it’s a good idea to go in the direction of long-short implementation (if it’s possible). Managing short book can be challenging; however, the added benefit of lower correlation among strategies gives resultant factor portfolio a significant boost in the return-to-risk ratio (even after accounting for realistic implementation and shorting costs).

Authors: Benaych-Georges, Bouchaud, Ciliberti

Title: Equity Factors: To Short Or Not To Short, That is the Question

YTD Performance of Equity Factors – Update After Two Months

May 15, 2020

Nearly two months ago, in a time of the highest turmoil during the current pandemic crisis, we performed a quick assessment of the status of performance of equity factor strategies. The world has still not been able to ward-off health-care crisis completely, but a lot of countries have made significant progress (on the other hand, there are still a lot of countries in a worse state than a few months ago). Equity indexes have rebounded from the March lows and have removed some of the losses. Therefore, we have received multiple inquiries about the current situation of equity factor strategies.

So it may be a good time to revisit once again how they are performing.

Backtesting ESG Factor Investing Strategies

May 7, 2020

Socially Responsible Investing (also called ESG Factor Investing) grows in popularity. More and more investors enter the stock market not just to invest their savings, but they are also want to support companies that bring positive social or environmental change. ESG factor investing can bring satisfaction to those investors. But does it also brings a real outperformance in a financial sense? Is there some ESG factor alpha? How big is it? These are some of the questions we have decided to investigate – we obtained data, identified ESG factor strategies and tested them. Feel free to explore them with us…

A Link Between Investment Biases and Cortisol and Testosterone Levels

April 28, 2020

Financial markets are full of pricing anomalies, and their existence is often explained by human behavior. Behavioral finance postulates that cognitive irrationality is manifested in biases like the disposition effect (the tendency of people to sell assets that have increased in value, but keeping assets that have dropped in value in portfolio) or overconfidence bias (the tendency of people to be more confident in their own abilities). There are some papers which directly link investment decision making caused by these biases to actual physiology of investors (for example, a known impact of testosterone on investment performance). A new research paper written by Nofsinger, Patterson, and Shank examines not only testosterone but also cortisol levels of testing subjects and then compares their performance in a mock investment contest. Both hormones are strongly related to higher portfolio turnover and inability to accept losses, with cortisol levels even more significant than testosterone.

Author: Nofsinger, Patterson, Shank

Title: On the Physiology of Investment Biases: The Role of Cortisol and Testosterone

How Do Investment Strategies Perform After Publication?

April 9, 2020

In many academic fields like physics, chemistry or natural sciences in general, laws do not change. While economics and theory of investing try to find rules that would be true and always applicable, it is not that simple, there is a “complication“ – human. Psychology of humans is very complex. In the one hand, it creates anomalies in the market, that academics study and practitioners use. On the other hand, after an anomaly is discovered, often, the strategy becomes less profitable.

While for academics, it is just another research question, investors may be worried that the anomaly is arbitraged away, and it will become unprofitable in their portfolios. In this article, we will look deeper on whether the anomaly can be arbitraged away, if the profits are lower for the specific strategy once the strategy becomes well-known, and even if the strategies can be timed. Quantpedia‘s readers are often interested in these common topics, and we will try to shed some light on them.

Do Prediction Markets Predict Macroeconomic Risk?

April 4, 2020

The U.S. (and the world’s) economy is currently entering a recession. Right now, everybody can see it, the only question is how deep it will be. But is it possible in a real-time predict if the economy will enter a recession? And will that information help us to better set % allocation of equities in our portfolio? Most of the macroeconomic data shows recession in macroeconomic reports with a significant lag. There are multiple different forecasting models which try to predict recession or at least estimate the probability that we are entering into one. We are presenting one interesting research paper written by Jonathan Hartley which shows that prediction markets (betting markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events) can be successfully used as a complementary tool in various economic forecasting tools. Prediction markets can be used to measure risk in U.S. equities, credit spreads, the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and U.S. dollar foreign exchange rates.

Author: Hartley

Title: Recession Prediction Markets and Macroeconomic Risk in Asset Prices

YTD Performance of Equity Factors

March 23, 2020

Markets are in turmoil, and there exist very few investors who are unscathed by current global events related to coronavirus pandemic. It’s a good time to revisit how are various groups of algorithmic trading strategies navigating current troubled times. The selected sample for this short article consists of 7 well-known equity factor strategies – size, value, momentum, quality, investment, short-term reversal and low volatility factors.

Our analysis shows that we have two groups of factors: strong winners and bad losers. There is no middle ground. A current bear market is ruthless, equity long-short factor strategies either totally nailed it and had a stellar performance or totally disappointed.

A Comparison of Global Factor Models

March 4, 2020

Mirror, mirror on the wall, what’s the best factor model of them all? We at Quantpedia are probably not the only one asking this question. A lot of competing factor models are described in the academic literature and used in practice. That’s the reason why we consider a new research paper written by Matthias Hanauer really valuable. He compared several commonly employed factor models across non-U.S. developed and emerging market countries and answered the question from the beginning of this paragraph. Which model seems the winner? The six-factor model proposed in Barillas et al. (2019) that substitutes the classic value factor in the Fama and French (2018) six-factor model for a monthly updated value factor …

Authors: Hanauer

Title: A Comparison of Global Factor Models