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What’s the Best Factor for High Inflation Periods? – Part II

April 13, 2022

This second article offers a different look at high inflation periods, which we already analyzed in What’s the Best Factor for High Inflation Periods? – Part I. The second part looks at factor performance during two 10-year periods of high inflation. What’s our main takeaway? The best hedge for a high inflation period is the value or momentum factor. Other promising factors (energy sector, small-cap stocks, or long-run reversal) don’t perform as consistently as value and momentum.

What’s the Best Factor for High Inflation Periods? – Part I

April 11, 2022

Another period of long sustained high inflation is probably right around the corner, as the Russia-Ukraine Conflict keeps evolving, and its end is nowhere to be seen. In this article, we analyzed the Consumer Price Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, which includes the rate of inflation in the USA since 1913. We found multiple years during which the inflation was abnormally high and analyzed the performance of the known equity long-short factors. The factors with the highest average performance are HML (value stocks), long-term reversal, momentum, and energy stocks. On the other hand, tech stocks, bond-like assets, and the SMB factor should be avoided during the high inflation periods.

Factor Performance in Bull and Bear Markets

January 27, 2022

Do common equity factors suffer during bear markets? Undoubtedly, the market factor is a rather unpleasant investment during bear markets, but what about the long-short factors? Are they able to deliver performance? The research paper by Geertsema and Lu (2021) provides several answers and interesting insights.

Quality Factor in Sector Investing

January 14, 2022

The critical question of this research is to examine whether the quality factor could be found in the aggregated groups of similar stocks such as industries or sectors. Additionally, instead of constructing a comprehensive quality metric like other papers, we examine the individual ratios aggregated to the whole sector. The aim is to investigate the fundamental ratios on which quality is based rather than the composite quality score of sectors.

Synthetic Lending Rates Predict Subsequent Market Return

December 9, 2021

It is indisputable that the data are changing financial markets – computing power has increased, allowing to rise the trends of ML/AI and big data (number of possible predictors or granularity) or HFT strategies. Indeed, not all the datasets are worth the time of academics, investors or traders, but we are always keen to analyze the novel and unique datasets. Of course, if we believe that the analysis is worthy of sharing, we are happy to do so. This post offers a shorter version of our newest research about Synthetic lending rates and subsequent market return. We hope that you find it enriching; enjoy the reading!

The Quant Cycle – The Time Variation in Factor Returns

November 22, 2021

Although the factors in asset pricing models offer a premium in the long run, they are undergoing bull and bear market cycles in the short term. One would expect that it is due to their connection to the business cycles as the factor premium represents a reward for bearing the macroeconomic risks. A novel study by Blitz (2021) finds that traditional business cycle indicators can’t explain much of the time variation of factor returns as the factors are a behavioral phenomenon driven by investor sentiment. To capture the large factor cyclical variation, the author proposes a quant cycle that is defined by the peaks and troughs in the factor returns corresponding to the bull and bear markets.

Six Examples of Trading Strategies That Use Alternative Data

October 26, 2021

Why has been alternative data recently so much popular? The answer most of the time hovers around the notion of “seeking the new alpha sources”. First, the hunt for alpha is huge due to the low yield world and is getting only bigger. Secondly, some of the more popular strategies can become crowded, leading to diminishing alpha or the risk of a sudden reversal in performance (all of us remember this year’s growth vs. value switch).

We at Quantpedia don’t create nor manage any alternative data sets. But we are aware of this trend, and we strive hard to find new alpha opportunities which may lie in these new data sources. From the database of almost 700 quantitative investment strategies Quantpedia has gathered, almost 100 strategies are based on alternative datasets. Today, we picked just 6 of them to give you a little taste of how these alternative strategies may look like, what kind of datasets they utilize and how they perform.

Insider Trading: What Happens Behind Closed Doors

October 11, 2021

Corporate insiders often have insight into a company’s private information, which might help them predict how the shares’ price will move in the coming days. However, laws and regulations are designed to keep them from trading based on this knowledge, as it would be unfair and hurt the company’s other shareholders. This includes the prohibition of insider trading or designing a 10b5-1 plan, which we will discuss in this article. Anyways, knowing about incoming losses or the will to create profits might lead these insiders to different practices that could be questioned. Let’s look at some of the newest research concerning these issues.

Asset Pricing Models in China

September 27, 2021

The CAPM model was a breakthrough for asset pricing, but the times where the market factor was most widely used are long gone. Nowadays, if we exaggerate a bit, we have as many factors as we want. Therefore, it might not be straightforward which factor model should be used.

Hanauer et al. (2021) provide several insights into factor models. The authors postulate that the factor models should be examined in the international samples since this can be understood as a test for asset pricing models. The domestic Chinese A-shares stock market seems to be an excellent “playground” for the factors models, given the size of the Chinese stock market, but mainly because of its uniqueness. The paper compares the models (and factors) based on various methods (performance, data-driven asset pricing framework, test assets, turnovers and even transaction costs). Apart from valuable insights into the several less-known factors, the key takeaway message could be that the “US classic” Fama-French factor models perform poorly in China. The modified Fama-French six-factor model or q-factor is better, but overall, it seems that factor models designed for China, such as the model of Liu, Stambaugh and Yuan (2019), are the best.

How to Use Lexical Density of Company Filings

September 10, 2021

The application of alternative data is currently a strong trend in the investment industry. We, too, analyzed few datasets in the past, be it ESG data, sentiment, or company fillings. This article continues the exploration of the alt-data space. This time, we use the research paper by Joenväärä et al., which shows that lexically diverse hedge funds outperform lexically homogeneous as an inspiration for us to analyze various lexical metrics in 10-K & 10-Q reports. Once again, we show that it makes sense to transmit ideas from one research paper to completely different asset class.