Quantpedia in January 2023

Hello all,

What have we accomplished in the last month?

– One new Quantpedia Pro report – the Rebalancing Analysis
– 9 new Quantpedia Premium strategies have been added to our database
– 10 new related research papers have been included in existing Premium strategies during the last month
– Additionally, we have produced 9 new backtests written in QuantConnect code
– And finally, 5+1 new blog posts that you may find interesting have been published on our Quantpedia blog in the previous month

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How to Use ETF Flows to Predict Subsequent Daily ETF Performance

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are incredibly versatile investment vehicles. They have become more popular in recent years as investors have grown more comfortable with passive investing strategies. But ETFs can be very useful also in active trading strategies, as they can be used to gain exposure to specific markets, sectors, or themes. But when you invest in ETFs or trade them regularly; it’s really good to look under the hood and learn some tricks where to obtain a new source of alpha. And one such possible source or information advantage may be the possibility of analyzing the ETF flows data …

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An Analysis of Rebalancing Performance Dispersion

The theme of rebalancing in longer-term investing is neglected but important as it influences the overall portfolio’s performance and risk. Unfortunately, many investors are inconsistent in choosing dates for their rebalances of portfolios, resulting in hardly predictable results (whether positively or negatively affecting it), and not contributing to handling risk management properly. The following article presents our analysis of the impact of rebalancing on portfolio returns. It also serves as an introduction to the methodology for an upcoming Quantpedia Pro report that our users would be able to use to quickly assess the impact of the rebalancing period on any selected combination of trading strategies, custom equity curves, and ETFs.

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160 Years of Wars and Disasters in Markets

Life is not always rosy; many tragedies and unexpected events hurt individuals and society. While some are hardly avoidable, such as natural disasters, some others as wars, are generally only functions of hate and greed. In the case of predictable events, risk measures can be employed, but unexpected outbreaks of aggression can hardly be hedged across the spectrum of different financial assets. We had previously touched on a similar topic and looked at some historical geopolitical shocks and price reactions around that time. Now, we would like to do a short review of an interesting 140-page paper by Dat Mai and Kuntara Pukthuanthong (2022), which, while not providing actionable strategy, provides insightful retrospection and takes war topic modeling to the higher level, covering developing narratives and influence factors extensively.

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Size Factor vs. Monetary Policy Regime

We have brought attention to the importance of evaluating factors models in different market regimes, and now, we will take a closer look at the size factor. Size [SMB (small minus big)] factor is a popular investment choice for asset investigation by many portfolio managers worldwide. The Size earned prominence in Fama and French’s three and five-factor models, and enjoy the continued discussion about its place in today’s portfolio construction. But it’s crucially important for investors seeking to capture the Size premium to realize that it is dependent on the monetary policy being pursued by the Federal Reserve, as the monetary easing seems to induce a Size premium.

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What Is an Optimal Allocation to Cryptocurrencies?

Cryptocurrencies are a very controversial asset class. Some people may hate it, others may glorify it, and a significant part may ignore it. But what’s the opportunity cost of complete ignorance? Are we able to numerically calculate it? That’s a hard question that Duchin, Solomon, Tu, and Wang tried to answer in their recent paper, and we will take a look at some of their findings and discuss it.

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Which ESG Funds Perform Greenwashing?

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing is rapidly growing in popularity. As more investors grow interested in the ESG investing, the funds theoretically have more reason to highlight their engagement with the ESG-related activities. In the research paper by Andrikogiannopoulou et al. (2022), authors first use textual analysis to assess how and how much the funds talk about ESG-related topics in their prospectuses, and then they compare this measure with the funds’ actual ESG engagement. The discrepancy between the words in their prospectus (high rate of mentioning ESG investing-related topics) and the fund’s acts (not being as green as illustrated in the prospectus) allows the authors to identify the greenwashing funds and take a closer look at their performance.

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Quantpedia’s Research in 2022

Dear readers & clients,

The beginning of the new year is usually a traditional time for recapitulation. The year 2022 was a really challenging one on the financial markets, filled with unexpected events (Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or surge in inflation etc.). But I am again really proud of my whole team for their work as we continue fulfilling our primary mission to process academic research related to quant&algo trading to a more user-friendly form.

Last year was again really productive…

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